The 2026 Commonwealth Games are set to be a thrilling spectacle, with the swimming events taking center stage at the Tollcross International Swimming Centre in Glasgow, Scotland. The competition is fierce, but one swimmer stands out as the clear favorite: Sam Short. Short is on fire, having clocked a monster 3:40.67 at the Australian Trials, shaving 0.01 seconds off his world gold-winning time from 2023. This performance cements his status as the only swimmer under 3:44 this season, and with his main rival, Dan Wiffen, out of form, a distance sweep looks highly likely. Short's dominance in the 400 freestyle is further evidenced by his season-long build-up, with times of 3:45.88, 3:43.49, 3:42.53, and 3:40.67, all leading up to his 3:39 target. If he cracks the world record of 3:39.96, it won't be a surprise, given his incredible form.
In contrast, Wiffen has had a below-par season, with a personal best of 3:44.35 from the 2023 Malmstein Swim Open, and his fastest swim since then being a 3:46.65 from the 2024 World Championships. His best time this season is a 3:49.35 from the Irish Championships, indicating a struggle to maintain his previous form. Short's dominance in the 400 freestyle is further emphasized by the fact that he is the only swimmer who has been under 3:44 this season, leaving Wiffen in the dust.
The 800 freestyle is another event where Short shines. He has more speed in the 200 and 400 freestyle than anyone else entered in this event, and his strength in the second half of the race is unparalleled. Short's big-game mettle is also evident, having proven himself an elite racer in the 400 freestyle. His recent swims in the 800 freestyle, including 7:40.98 and 7:41.04, have put him ahead of the competition, with Wiffen struggling to keep up. Short's performance in the 800 freestyle is a testament to his versatility and endurance, making him a force to be reckoned with.
Wiffen, the Olympic champion in the 800 freestyle, has lost his European record to Johannes Liebmann, but still has a strong shot at a podium in Glasgow. However, Short's performance this season makes it difficult to see him being beaten. Wiffen's best time of 7:38.19, set at the Paris Olympics, is not enough to challenge Short's current form. Short's recent swim of 7:36.73 at the Australian Trials, the #3 swim in history, further cements his dominance in the event.
In the 1500 freestyle, Short is the top seed, but his shift in focus towards the 200 freestyle as his third event could leave the door open for Wiffen. Short's current time of 14:42.09 is the fastest in the Commonwealth this season, and he could be closer to his best of 14:37 if he takes it out a little slower. Wiffen, the 2024 world champion, has not broken 14:50 this season and scratched the event at the 2025 World Championships, indicating a struggle to maintain his previous form. Short's dominance in the 1500 freestyle is further evidenced by his season-long build-up, with times of 14:48.54 and 14:42.09, all leading up to his 14:37 target.
In conclusion, Sam Short is the clear favorite in the 400, 800, and 1500 freestyle events at the 2026 Commonwealth Games. His incredible form, versatility, and endurance make him a force to be reckoned with, and with his main rival, Dan Wiffen, struggling to maintain his previous form, Short is poised for a distance sweep. The competition is fierce, but Short's performance this season makes it difficult to see him being beaten.
